Goblin House
Goblin House
The St. Louis Fed published a working paper in August 2025 that found a correlation of 0.57 between the industries that had adopted generative AI most intensively and the industries that had seen the largest increases in unemployment between 2022 and 2025. The occupations that raced toward the technology appear to be the ones already paying for it.
The Stanford Digital Economy Lab's November 2025 paper used ADP payroll data covering millions of workers to find that entry-level hiring in "AI-exposed jobs" had dropped 13% since large language models started proliferating. Among workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations, employment fell 16% from late 2022 to mid-2025. Among young software developers specifically, the decline was nearly 20%. [Stanford Digital Economy Lab "Canaries in the Coal Mine" November 2025]
On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law. CBO's final cost estimate found the law's Medicaid and CHIP provisions would cut gross federal spending by $990 billion over ten years — the largest cut in the program's history. CBO estimates 7.5 million people will lose Medicaid as a result and become uninsured by 2034. [CBO Public Law 119-21 July 21 2025]
The same law cut at least $120 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, serving more than 42 million people. Congress also authorised $45 billion for ICE detention through 2029. The ICE detention infrastructure runs on Palantir's ImmigrationOS and ELITE platforms. [CBO · American Immigration Council January 2026]